The Good, Bad and Ugly in a New Poll on Trump’s Trials and the Supreme Court

Donald Trump’s legal peril is about to enter a critical new phase. In the coming weeks or months in Manhattan, he is poised to earn the dubious distinction of becoming the first president in American history to stand trial on criminal charges, just as the Supreme Court is gearing up to consider whether Trump should separately stand trial for his alleged criminal misconduct to overturn the 2020 election.

It’s a watershed moment for the American legal system, but arguably the political fallout matters even more as Trump barrels toward the GOP presidential nomination and a rematch with President Joe Biden in November.

Eight months out, we had questions. Among them: If Trump is convicted of a crime, how will it affect his chances of returning to the White House? What do Americans make of his claim that he should be immune from prosecution even if he actually perpetrated a criminal scheme to steal the last election? Does the public trust the Supreme Court to decide that issue fairly?

To find out, we worked with Ipsos to poll the American people — and we discovered some surprising answers to all of these questions, and several more.

The bottom line is that a conviction in Manhattan may not doom Trump, but it would do real damage.

More than a third of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to support Trump’s candidacy. In a close race, that might matter.

It also cuts against the conventional wisdom, as analysts have sometimes doubted the political impact of the prosecution in Manhattan, which concerns Trump’s alleged falsification of his company’s business records in connection with a hush-money payment to the adult film star Stormy Daniels. The trial, which was set to start March 25, was delayed on Friday by at least three weeks to allow more time to review records from federal prosecutors.

As for Trump and the Supreme Court, the results are legitimately remarkable in a time of intense political polarization and distrust of the justices. A whopping 70 percent of the country rejects Trump’s claim that presidents should be immune from prosecution for alleged crimes they committed while in office. Less than a quarter of the respondents, meanwhile, said that they trust the Supreme Court to issue a fair and nonpartisan ruling on the matter.

This poll was conducted from March 8-10 and had a sample of 1,024 adults, age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for all respondents. This is the third poll on the Trump prosecutions that POLITICO Magazine has conducted in partnership with Ipsos since last summer.

Here are the key findings.

1. Half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the Manhattan prosecution

Fifty percent of respondents said that they believe Trump is guilty of the alleged crimes charged in Manhattan.

There was a predictable and sizable partisan split, with only 14 percent of Republicans reporting that they believe Trump is guilty, while 86 percent of Democrats held that view. Among independents, 54 percent said that Trump is guilty.

What arguably stands out most is the fact that the number of people who said that they believe Trump is guilty here was nearly identical to the results when we asked respondents to consider Trump’s guilt in his other three criminal cases — the Justice Department’s prosecution in Washington over the 2020 election (49 percent said he is guilty), the department’s charges against Trump in Florida over his retention of classified documents (52 percent: guilty), and the Fulton County District Attorney’s case against Trump in Georgia over the 2020 election (49 percent: guilty). These numbers also roughly track Trump’s unfavorability ratings among the American population.

All of this suggests at least two possibilities worth bearing in mind, and they are not mutually exclusive.

First, it is possible that at least some Americans — perhaps very large numbers of them — are not clearly distinguishing the cases against Trump from one another or do not care about the sorts of distinctions that have occupied some legal commentators, including yours truly. Second, their opinions on Trump’s guilt may be a proxy for their views on Trump more generally and more evidence that we live in a 50-50 politically polarized country.

2. A conviction in Manhattan would hurt Trump politically, particularly with independents

A plurality of respondents — 44 percent — said that a conviction in Manhattan would have no impact on their likelihood to support Trump for president, but that is far from the whole story.

Among those respondents who said that a conviction would influence their decision, the numbers were not good for Trump.

By a more than 2-1 margin, respondents said that a conviction would make them less likely to support Trump (32 percent) as opposed to more likely (13 percent). Notably, more than a third of independents said it would reduce their likelihood to support Trump. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of respondents who said that a conviction would bolster their support were Republicans. (The numbers were similar when we asked about a potential conviction in the federal prosecution for undermining the 2020 election.)

The results may give hope to some Democrats worried about Biden’s reelection prospects this fall, but there’s also no guarantee that a conviction would maintain a high level of salience through November.

There will be a long way to go between the end of the Manhattan trial and the election, and a lot could happen in the intervening period that could dilute or perhaps even nullify the effects of a conviction on public opinion, particularly if there is no federal trial in Washington for election subversion.

3. The prosecution has an Achilles’ heel, and his name is Michael Cohen

A significant part of the case against Trump will take the form of testimony from his former-lawyer-turned-archnemesis, but our poll results indicate that this could be a serious liability for the Manhattan D.A.’s office.

We asked respondents for their opinions on Cohen’s honesty, and the returns were not good. Forty-eight percent of respondents said that they believe he is not honest — perhaps not a huge surprise considering that Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to lying to Congress, financial fraud and campaign finance violations.

We also asked how their perception of the D.A.’s case against Trump would be affected if it is based “in large part” on Cohen’s testimony. A plurality (38 percent) said that this would make the case weaker, while 31 percent said that it would have no impact, and 26 percent of respondents said that it would make the case stronger.

What should we make of this? A very basic rule of thumb is that most people who are criminally prosecuted end up being convicted, even if they go to trial and mount a defense. The jury pool in Manhattan is also bad for Trump (though not as bad as it is in Washington). An acquittal — which would require the jurors to unanimously conclude that Trump is not guilty of the charges — seems highly unlikely, but a single juror can hang the jury and force a mistrial. This rarely happens, but we have also never had a former president stand trial before.

Let’s put it this way: There’s no question that the D.A.’s office will do its best to shore up Cohen’s credibility on the stand, and if I had to guess, Trump will probably be convicted.

But if the opinions of the jurors on Cohen’s credibility are ultimately in line with this national result, a mistrial is quite plausible — and Trump could conceivably walk on that basis alone.

4. Americans overwhelmingly reject Trump’s presidential immunity claim

Trump thrives on political division, but let’s give him credit where it’s due: He has managed to unite the country in opposition to his claim that he should be immune from criminal prosecution. It’s a stance that he’s taken all the way to the Supreme Court, and which has already helped delay his Jan. 6 trial for months.

Seventy percent of respondents rejected this position, including a large plurality (48 percent) of Republicans. Only 11 percent of all respondents endorsed Trump’s position that presidents should have criminal immunity for conduct while in office, and they were largely Republicans.

The result is a positive sign for the constitutional sensibilities of the American public, since Trump’s argument for immunity is absurd as a matter of law, history and democratic logic.

5. Americans do not trust the Supreme Court to get it right

Our poll also produced a sobering result: About half of the country does not trust the Supreme Court to issue a fair and nonpartisan ruling on the question of whether Trump is immune from prosecution.

A sizable plurality (46 percent) expressed that view, while about a quarter of the respondents (24 percent) took the other side. About a third (29 percent) said that they do not know whether they trust the court on this issue.

These ought to be incredibly dispiriting figures for the justices. That of course assumes that they all care, which is far from clear.

The court’s public standing has taken a major hit since Trump and his Republican allies installed a conservative supermajority that, most notably, overturned Roe v. Wade. Their approval ratings have been stuck in the low 40s for years now.

Taken together, our poll results suggest that the court — and the conservative justices in particular — could face even more concerns about their partisanship and credibility if they side with Trump on his immunity claim.

6. A large majority (still) wants Trump to stand trial in Washington before November

The odds of a Trump trial in Washington this year may have gone down, but that has not deterred the public.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said that Trump should stand trial in the Justice Department’s 2020 election subversion case before Election Day. Ninety percent of Democrats expressed that view, as did 65 percent of independents and even 26 percent of Republicans. These figures have largely held steady since we asked the question last August and are in line with the results from at least one other recent poll.

I have a view on this question too, and it is in line with that of most Americans that the trial should take place before the election.

Some conservative lawyers have recently argued that it would be improper to hold the trial before November, but their reasoning neglects two highly salient points — first, that federal judges must set trial dates that account for “the best interest of the public” as well as that of the defendant, and second, that a large majority of Americans want this trial to happen before November.

People have the right to their own opinions, and this is not an easy question given all of its legal and political dimensions. But the law is the law, and the facts are the facts. What's that old saying again?