The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions, Anzac Day: Who takes the prize on the H&A season’s biggest day?

It’s a festival of footy as Anzac Round dawns, with matches to be played across a whopping five days in 2024’s most spread-out ‘weekend’ of action.

That’s good news for some, bad news for others – like say, those poor souls whose job it is to write something on every day AFL footy is played – and it makes for a challenge when doing a weekly expert tipping write-up, too.

So this round, we’re doing things a little differently – to give our experts enough time to mull over this weekend’s games, catch up on line-ups and make their choices, we’ll be updating this week’s tips daily with all the upcoming games.

After an easy win for Melbourne on Anzac Day eve, the biggest day on the AFL home-and-away calendar dawns with a blockbuster double-header to come.

First, Essendon and Collingwood do battle to continue a near three-decade long tradition, while in the evening, Canberra plays host to Brisbane and GWS in a match that could be the first of many as well.

Who takes the chocolates – or this week, should that be the Anzac biscuits? Let’s find out.

Tim Miller

Last week: 3

Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane

Let’s not beat around the bush here – it’s Melbourne by how much against the Tigers.

Sure, Adem Yze’s team have played with plenty of ticker this season, but their injuries are stacking up even with Jacob Hopper returning, and even the Demons’ oft-misfiring forward line should have no issues kicking a winning score here.

Richmond’s only real hope is to try and win out in the midfield against Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and co. – which is presumably why they’ve gone for a Toby Nankervis-Sam Naismith ruck duo to go up against the monstrosity that is Max Gawn.

If they can limit the big man’s influence around the ground, and especially at follow-up stoppages, they may be able to restrict the Dees long enough to pull off the mother of all upsets. I can’t see it happening.

Anzac Day has me torn on a number of fronts; Essendon are in great form and are a more than respectable roughie option if you’re after one this week, but since 2005 they’ve made a very specific habit of winning on Anzac Day only every fourth year – 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021. That means they’re still a year overdue if they’re to keep up this streak, and I’m a sucker for random sequences like this, so I’ll be backing the Pies in this time.

As for the night match, I can’t help feeling Brisbane are due a response after last week’s disappointing loss to Geelong. No Oscar McInerney hurts, but so too does no Toby Greene for the Giants, and at a venue where the Lions bested them last year and with Sam Taylor still out, I’ll back the visitors in for an upset to breathe life into their season, and cast still more doubts over the Giants.

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 2

Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS

The traditional Anzac Day Eve clash is upon us once again and it’s perhaps one of the most underrated fixtures on the calendar, and certainly a joy to attend.

This clash is intriguing, not only for the narratives that surround it. For the Tigers, the concept of landing a top-three pick, if not the top pick in this draft, hasn’t felt this real for a while. They’re injury-depleted and young, and with the talent in this upcoming crop, they should lean into it.

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For the Demons, they’ve not beaten any real September (or even August) threats so far this year, and when challenged they’ve faltered. Now, welcoming back a couple of players and getting some chemistry in with Shane McAdam for the rest of the season, I think there’s untapped offensive potential that can turn the season around.

Melbourne will win this game and will do it comfortably, but watch for the pre-game, watch for the young talent and watch for some stars to return to form.

I’m not one to follow the BOM’s forecasts too closely – there have been too many washed-out games of cricket that ended up having no rain at all – but if there’s a bit of drizzle around the MCG, it certainly brings the Bombers into play.

While a player like Darcy Parish has struggled, the likes of Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell are having breakout seasons on the inside, so it will be good to see how they perform on this stage.

The Magpies had a slow start against Port but really flexed their muscle, and again look like they’ll have another crack at the flag. The Pies to win, but a good contest to be had.

GWS without Toby Greene come up against a Lions outfit that struggled in the wet last week – this looms as a cracker. Put simply, Brisbane has to win if they still want to keep their top four hopes alive. Unfortunately, there are few opponents you’d want to come across in a must-win situation less than GWS.

The Giants lost last week and despite missing their skipper, it will really be a battle won and lost in the midfield. I’m leaning towards the hosts here.

Lachie Hunter and Jacob van Rooyen of the Demons celebrate a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Last week: 3

Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS

Anzac Day Eve shapes as a vast mismatch. Richmond have a patchwork quilt of a forward line against the best defence in the league, and a midfield that was obliterated by West Coast but now comes up against Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and Viney.

Yes, the Dees’ forward set-up is usually dysfunctional at best, but they’ll only need to kick 10 goals to win, and perhaps even half of that will do.

Essendon have been incredibly honest this year, apart from one bad showing against Port Adelaide in Gather Round. The Bombers’ pluck has seen them win three games as underdogs already this season, a situation which they face again here. Don’t be surprised to see them push Collingwood all the way.

Many will want to declare the Pies are ‘back’ but their form has still been nothing but patchy. You do have to side with them, but let’s see.

What a match-up Thursday night is. The Lions were so ineffective in the wet against Geelong last week, but the Giants are starting to lose some soldiers. It’s a good test for both clubs. Perhaps Brisbane need to have their backs against the wall to produce peak performance, as they did against Melbourne two weeks ago, but I’d rather trust the team in form than the one looking to find it.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Last week: 4

Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS

Continuing the week’s punditry theme of Anzac Day’s commercialisation jumping the shark, I’ve always felt “Anzac Eve” to be a bit of an odd commemoration.

Alas, it’s that time again, and we welcome back, from a bye, two disparate Victorian clubs in Richmond and Melbourne. Refreshed but still (very) wounded, the Tigers stagger into tonight’s clash off the back of a damaging loss against Harley Reid and co. (wouldn’t know what that’s like!), while the Dees are sitting pretty inside the eight.

Beneficially, Adam Yze’s men will welcome back Jacob Hopper and Dylan Grimes, but I’m not optimistic they’ll be able to mount any serious challenge against Melbourne, who regain Clayton Oliver. 

The Anzac Day monopoly of the Collingwood and Essendon is no more, with the nation’s capital playing host to a (yes) more intriguing scrap later in the afternoon: the Giants hosting the Lions.

It goes without saying that Brisbane desperately needs the win – any win – and it’ll just be a bonus if they pull it out against the Giants. Much will be made of their defeat to the Blues, but it’s an aberration without pattern at the moment, and they remain an irresistible tip.

In the traditional clash, the Dons’ controversial win over Adelaide would have propelled them into lukewarm favouritism here… if the Pies hadn’t regained their mojo last Saturday. The Bombers, who have won just two of these fixtures in the past decade, are a roughie tip, but Collingwood love these moments, and the reigning premiers will get it done here.